Take
a look at your window right now.Chances are, you'll see it is snowing right now in Boundary County.
As of today, December 23, Boundary County continues to do well in its precipitation profile for the water year, and in our area's accumulated mountain snowpack.
However, experts continue to be cautious and to express concern about what might happen with both our precipitation and our snowpack as El Niño exerts its effects in the coming winter months.
The water year is measured each year beginning October 1, running through September 30.
Instruments located at Boundary County's Hidden Lake and at Myrtle Creek measure precipitation and the snowpack in those areas. As of today, data from those instruments are showing good numbers for both our current snowpack and the accumulated precipitation in Boundary County for this point in the water year.
At Hidden Lake, located in the west side mountains of the north west part of Boundary County, precipitation for our current month of December, as of readings taken just this morning, is 11.0 inches, which is 145% of the average for this point in December. (See our handy graphs below). For the full 2016 water year since October 1, Hidden Lake precipitation totals 36.2 inches, which is 144% of the year-to-date average number for December 23.
At the other data collection site at Myrtle Creek, located just west of the Kootenai National Wildlife Refuge, December precipitation stands at 5.0 inches as of today, which is 161% of the average month-to-date amount for December 23.
Water year-to-date precipitation at Myrtle Creek is 10.7 inches, which is 104% of our usual year-to-date average for this point in December.
Our precipitation since October 1 continues to provide good snowpacks so far in the water year. At Hidden Lake, snowpack as of today is 13.5 inches (measured as Snow Water Equivalent), which is 103% of the average for December 23. Myrtle Creek snowpack today is 2.3 inches of Snow Water Equivalent, which is 105% of the usual December 23 average.
Take a look at these dazzling graphs, created by our official NewsBF Graphics Department:
(Note: the story continues below these graphs)
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With all this great winter precipitation and accumulating snowpack, it's nice to imagine a nice spring runoff come April, along with all the water we'll need for the summer months.
But some of the country's weather and climate experts are expressing concern that weather patterns coming in the next couple of months may disrupt that rosy spring picture. A big factor in these predictions has to do with the El Niño weather phenomenon. An El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean warm up. These increased ocean surface temperatures can then influence air and moisture movement in weather patterns around the globe.
"People the world over are feeling, or soon will feel, the effects of the strongest El Niño event since 1997-98, currently unfolding in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean," says the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center in a press release issued last week.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center goes back even farther in describing this year's El Niño, noting they expect it to rank among the strongest three dating back 65 years to 1950. In their November 2015 Forecast Forum last month, the Climate Prediction Center further stated, "Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16."
So what does all that have to do with Boundary County?
The Climate Prediction Center recently released its Three Month Official Forecast for January-February-March of 2016. That forecast shows above average predicted temperatures for the Pacific Northwest including the Idaho Panhandle, and below average probability of precipitation for the area.
So these experts are saying come January, and likely from that point through the remainder of this winter, we may be having less precipitation, and higher than usual temperatures. Should those forecasts hold up, we may once again see early warming and early runoff of our mountain snowpacks, and lower precipitation for a big part of our winter months.
No one can say for sure, but those are the forecasts from the experts at this point in the season, based on data available at this time.
Here's hoping us good water luck for the year!